DTC Not Dead Yet!
The DTC spending declines seen in the last few quarters seem to be over. TNS reported growth of 15% in 3Q after a 6% decline in first half. While not at the levels of DTC peak spending it appears we will have stabilization if not modest growth for 2010. Drug companies can now see the health care reform bill emerging with some more clarity. This will help in their planning process.
It is clear that at least in the Senate, there is a more pro-business attitude than in the House. Therefore, it seems clear the Senate will not allow a bill that destroys the health care for profit businesses. That being said, drug companies are not out of the woods completely. There is still talk of re-importation of cheaper drugs and the ending of tax deductions for DTC.
My guess is we will see modest growth in total DTC spending in 2010 after what looks like a flat 2009 if 4Q looks like the 3Q trend. The good news is that big brands are still using DTC and the talk of switching to other non-consumer promotional techniques is materializing. Some recent studies that have suggested DTC is not that effective have caused some angst about the future of DTC. These studies, however, are limited in scope and not convincing.
There will be the continued evolution of targeted media, albeit slowly. The FDA will not quickly make social media or web search easy for drug companies. We will see mass media still a key part of media plans for the foreseeable future. Given the need for cost reduction, I would expect more DTC on disease prevention, diagnosis and early treatment. This may not be evident in 2010 but I am convinced it is a long term trend for makers of health products.
What is clear is that consumer communication of health products will be a booming field in the next decade. There is consensus that we cannot remain an ever fatter, less active society and have any money for anything other than treating our aging population. Government, providers and suppliers of health products will need to be innovative to change the health behaviors of the American public. Much of that innovation will be in how to market products and services that facilitate that behavioral change. That bodes well for the careers of health marketers in the next decade.